Abstract
The 2024 presidential map cordoned the United States into two large blocs. When those blocs are compared on housing affordability, a clear pattern emerges states carried by the Democratic ticket tend to include the country’s highest absolute housing costs (high median home prices and the highest NLIHC “housing wages”), while states carried by the Republican ticket more often register lower nominal housing costs but also lower incomes. The policy implication: the nature of affordability challenges differs — blue states face high-cost, supply-constrained affordability problems concentrated in expensive metros; red states face low-income, limited-safety-net affordability gaps even where nominal prices are lower. (Data sources: NLIHC Out of Reach 2024, U.S. Census ACS summaries, Zillow/state price compilations.) National Low Income Housing Coalition+2Census+2
If you draw the 2024 electoral map and then color every state by a simple housing metric, you’ll see a striking geographic story. Many of the states that voted Democratic in 2024 contain the nation’s priciest housing markets. California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington and similar states require some of the highest hourly wages for a modest two-bedroom rental — in the NLIHC Out of Reach framing, those housing wages can be $40–$50 per hour in the worst markets. That means workers in service jobs face impossible tradeoffs between shelter and other essentials unless wages, subsidies, or supply change. National Low Income Housing Coalition
By contrast, a large share of the states that voted Republican in 2024 have lower nominal housing costs and correspondingly lower NLIHC housing wages (often under $22/hr for a two-bedroom). At first glance that seems like a relief — homes and rents are cheaper — but the safety valve is thin: median incomes in those places are lower and the social safety net and rental supply investments are not uniform. Lower prices do not eliminate severe burden for very low-income households: a person working multiple low-wage jobs can still be cost-burdened. The Census and housing-research centers confirm that nearly half of renter households nationally are cost-burdened; that burden shows up in both blue and red states, just for different reasons. Census+1
Policy design has to match the geography: in expensive Democratic-leaning states, the headline challenge is supply and the market squeezing out middle and lower incomes; in many Republican-leaning states the urgent need is income support, preservation of affordable stock, and targeted rental assistance. National averages hide this nuance: both groups of states suffer deep affordability stress, but the root drivers and the optimal policy mixes are distinct.
Footnotes (see next page for data table)
- National Low Income Housing Coalition. (2024). Out of Reach 2024: The high cost of housing (state housing wage tables). Retrieved from https://nlihc.org/oor. National Low Income Housing Coalition
- U.S. Census Bureau. (2025). Housing Availability and Affordability: 2023 (American Community Survey report). Retrieved from https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2025/demo/acs-61.pdf. Census
- “2024 United States presidential election” (results summary). (2025). American Presidency Project / Wikipedia summary of state returns. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election. Wikipedia
- WorldPopulationReview / Zillow compilations (state median home price listings). (2024–2025). Example compilation: Median home price by state pages. Retrieved from https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/median-home-price-by-state and Zillow research pages. World Population Review+1
- Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University and related reviews on renters’ affordability (2024 summary). Retrieved from https://www.jchs.harvard.edu
Table — Affordable housing: states carried by Democrats vs. Republicans (2024 grouping)
| Metric (what it measures) | States carried by Democratic 2024 ticket — pattern & examples | States carried by Republican 2024 ticket — pattern & examples | Primary sources / evidence |
| Election grouping (which states counted as “Democratic” vs “Republican”) | 19 states + DC were carried by the Harris/Walz ticket in 2024 (see election results). Examples: CA, NY, MA, IL, WA, HI, MN, NV (and DC). | 31 states (plus most of the Heartland and Sunbelt) were carried by Trump/Vance in 2024. Examples: TX, FL, OH, GA, PA, IN, AL, MS. | 2024 state results (election summary). Wikipedia |
| Typical rental affordability (NLIHC “Housing Wage” — hourly wage needed to afford a 2-bedroom) | Higher required wages overall. Many Democratic-carried states contain the highest housing-wage states: e.g., California $49.61/hr, New York $46.03/hr, Massachusetts $45.90/hr. These reflect high rents and push up the wage needed to afford a modest apartment. | Lower required wages on average. Many Trump states appear among the lower-housing-wage states: e.g., Arkansas $18.98/hr, West Virginia $18.94/hr, North Dakota $19.47/hr, Wyoming $20.25/hr. (Exceptions exist in mixed or high-cost red states.) | NLIHC Out of Reach 2024 (state housing wage table). National Low Income Housing Coalition+1 |
| Median home prices (state-level snapshots) | Democratic-won states include the very highest home prices (CA, MA, HI, NY), so median home value tends to be higher in many blue states. | Republican-won states generally include many of the lowest median home-price states (WV, MS, AR) though high-price Republican states (e.g., TX has high metros) complicate the picture. | State median home price compilations / Zillow & state lists. Zillow+1 |
| Share of households cost-burdened (national patterns; renters vs owners) | Renters in high-cost blue states often have high nominal burdens (high rents); however, incomes also tend to be higher in some blue states so burden rates vary. | Many red states have lower nominal housing costs but also lower incomes — cost burden remains substantial for low-income households. Nationwide, nearly half of renter households are cost-burdened. | U.S. Census / ACS & JCHS summaries; Pew/JCHS reviews. Census+2Pew Research Center+2 |
| Overall pattern / takeaway | Blue states concentrate many of the highest absolute housing costs (high housing wages, high median home prices); that produces acute affordability stress for low-income renters and first-time buyers in those states. | Red states generally show lower nominal housing costs and lower housing-wage requirements, but lower incomes and fewer rental supply pipelines mean cost burden is still deeply felt among low-income families. | NLIHC + Census + housing market data syntheses. |
